摘要：在全面分析北京市户籍人口生育水平、育龄妇女孩次结构、独生子女比例、婚配模武、人口迁移和生育意愿的基础上,本文分析了北京生育政策调整对出生人口规模产生的影响.结果表明户籍人口放开单独对北京新增出生人口的影响非常小,2020年以前每年对北京市户籍人口出生规模的影响在万-2万人左右,远远低于迁入人口规模的影响.
关键词：生育政策;生育水平;出生规模;放开单独
Preliminary Study on the Effect of Changing the One-child Policy on the Birth Population Size of Beijing
Abstract: Based on the analysis of the TFR，ever born children structure，ratio of one-child，marriage pattern，migration population and birth desire，this paper has studied on the effect of changing the one-child policy on the birth population size of Beijing． The effect of the release rural “single child”family is very limited． All“single child”couple with Beijing HUKOU can have two children policy will bring 10 thousand to 20 thousand more birth before 2020 for each year compare to not change the policy． The extra increased population size for each year is much smaller than the increase of the migration population．
Keywords: birth policy; fertility level; birth population size; release“single child”policy
文章出处：北京社会科学， 2011年第3期