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关于中国人口及相关问题的若干认识误区
文章作者:蔡昉  发布时间:2010-12-28 17:32:13

摘要:本文概括相关经验研究结果证明,诸多关于中国人口及其相关问题的传统观念,已经不再符合现实情况。这些传统观念包括:(1)人口众多是经济增长不利因素;(2)计划生育造成老龄化和性别比失调;(3)人口红利消失导致经济增长不可持续;(4)中国仍处在劳动力无限供给阶段;(5)刘易斯转折点意味着二元经济终结;(6)承认人口新趋势导致对就业的忽视。本文指出,走出这些认识误区,有利于正确认识中国经济所处的发展阶段,形成恰当的政策取向。

关键词:认识误区;人口红利;二元经济;刘易斯转折点

Conventional Wisdom about the Chinese Population

Abstract:  By summarizing some empirical studies, this paper concludes that a host of propositions about the Chinese population and related issues has become outdated. They no longer correctly reflect the reality of the economic and social development. Those fallacies include:(1)the big population is negatively related to economic growth;(2)family-planning policy is the cause of population aging and sex ratio imbalance;(3)the disappearance of the demographic dividend will lead to unsustainable economic growth;(4)the Chinese economy is still at the stage of development characterized by unlimited supply of labor;(5)the Lewis turning point heralds the end of the dual economy; and(6)acknowledgement of the new trend of demographic transition has caused inadequate attention to employment. It also points that throwing off the conventional wisdom listed above helps better understand the stage of China’s development and form a sound policy orientation.

 

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文章出处:国际经济评论,2010 年第6 期