摘要: 虽然传统现收现付制承诺了目标替代率不变，但一般并非以平均替代率来衡量。一个从较高平均替代率水平转轨而来的制度中，大多数情形下平均替代率是逐渐下降的，只有当平均替代率下降到远低于目标替代率水平时，平均替代率才有可能趋向稳定或出现上升。中国城镇职工基本养老保险的平均替代率已经处于低位，近年来观测到的平均替代率水平不断下降的现象是制度转轨的必然现象。测算表明，如果假定平均替代率水平维持目标替代率水平保持不变，将高估制度维持资金平衡所需的缴费率水平和资金缺口，并将改变制度盈余的根本性质。
关键词: 平均替代率; 目标替代率; 现收现付制; 缴费率; 养老金缺口
Average Replacement Rate，Objective Replacement Rate and Burden Estimation of Pension System
Abstract: Though the traditional Pay － as － you － go system generally has a fixed level of objective replacement rate，but it doesn’t means the average replacement rate is unchanged． When a pension system transfers from an old system with high average replacement rate，its average replacement rate will decrease in most situations． Only when the average replacement rate has been far less than the objective rate，probably the average replacement rate will be stable or increase．Presently the average replacement rate of China Urban Basic Old － age Insurance is rather low and its falling in recent years is the inevitable result of system transition． If assume the average replacement rate is fixed on the level of objective replacement rate，the contribution
rate and fund deficit will be overestimated and the system will from fund surplus to fund deficit．
Key words: average replacement rate; objective replacement rate; Pay － as － you － go system;contribution rate; pension fund deficit
文章出处：人口与发展，2013年第19卷第6期，p11-18