摘要: 文章以"单独"育龄妇女为研究对象,通过建立随机微观人口仿真模型,研究"单独"育龄妇女总量、结构和变动趋势,结果表明,如果现行生育政策不变,"单独"育龄妇女总量在未来三四十年内持续增长的趋势不可逆转,且增长速度很快,年均增长速度在10‰以上,2050年"单独"育龄妇女占育龄妇女的比例将达到50%以上,总量超过1.2亿。如果放开"单独"二孩政策,2050年"单独"育龄妇女占育龄妇女的比例将在50%以下,总量仍超过1亿。如果全面放开二孩政策,2050年"单独"育龄妇女占育龄妇女的比例将在30%以上,总量在1亿以内。
关键词: 单独； 家庭； 随机人口； 微观仿真
The Changing Numbers and Structure of the "Only-child" Women in Fertility Age
Abstract: Focusing on China’s birth control policy adjustments and using the population stochastic micro-simulation model,this paper has studied the total amount,structure and trend of the "only-child" women.As the result showing here,the continuing fast growth trend of "only-child" women is irreversible in the next 30 years.If the current birth control policy is unchanged,the annual growth rate of the "only-child" women will reach more than 10 ‰.The proportion of the "only-child" women in all fertility women will be more than 50% in 2050,and the total population of the "only-child" women will be over 120 million.If birth control policy is eased to allow two children for the "only-child" women,the proportion of the "only-child" women will be less than 50%,and the total population of the "only-child" women will still be over 100 million in 2050.If birth control policy is released to allow two children for all women,the proportion of the "only-child" women will be less than 30%,and the total population of the "only-child" women will be under 100 million in 2050.
文章出处：中国人口科学，2012年第3期