摘要: 文章基于传统的人口转变理论,从生育空间的三维性出发,提出了性别偏好视角下的中国人口转变模式。利用全国和分省的总和生育率及出生人口性别比数据进行验证,实证结果表明中国人口转变中存在带有性别偏好的人口转变模式:出生人口性别比伴随生育水平和性别偏好的动态变化而呈现出上升、高位徘徊的阶段特征和下降的趋势,这种变动趋势又因生育空间的区域差异呈现出4种区域类型。

关键词: 人口转变； 性别偏好； 出生人口性别比转变； 中国模式； 区域类型

A Model of Demographic Transition in China:An Analysis from Perspective of Sex Preference

Abstract: Based on the theory of demographic transition,this paper proposes a model of demographic transition in China and conducts an analysis by using data of national and provincial total fertility rates and SRB.The empirical study finds the pattern of China’s demographic transition with sex preference and the tendency of SRB with features of early stage rising,high level fluctuation,and late stage decline.At the same time the SRB evolution also shows four regional types because of the regional differences in fertility.

文章出处：中国人口科学，2011年第1期