摘要：文章从养老金资金平衡公式入手，推导出人口老龄化与缴费率变动之间的关系，测算了2008～2050年间中国人口老龄化对城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度社会统筹部分缴费率的影响及其他因素对此的干预。研究发现，在测算期内，尽管人口老龄化一直要求缴费率上升，但养老保险综合覆盖率之比的变化和养老金平均替代率的实际下降将有效化解人口老龄化的影响，当前的制度设计能够应对测算期内的人口老龄化形势。不仅如此，当前制度设计还存在适当降低缴费率或给城镇无保障老年人发放部分基础养老金的空间。
关键词: 人口老龄化； 养老保险； 缴费率
Impact of Population Ageing on China’s Old-age Insurance System for Urban Employees
Abstract: Based on the pension fund balance function,this paper discusses and predicts the relationship between population aging and contribution rate of urban pension system from 2008 to 2050. The result shows that although population aging requires increase of contribution rate in the social pooling part of China’s Old-age Insurance System for Urban Employees,other two changing factors,namely the coverage rate of elderly and working-age population and average replacement rate,will effectively offset the impact of population aging,which implies the present system could operate under the situation of the population aging until 2050. Furthermore,there is a space in present system to reduce contribution rate or to provide basic pension for those urban un-pensioned elderly people.
文章出处：中国人口科学，2010年第1期