Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies: A model averaging approach

文章作者：Han Lin Shang　　发布时间：2012-10-10 15:46:41

Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some methods for forecasting age-specific life expectancies. This paper proposes a model averaging approach to produce accurate point forecasts of age-specific life expectancies. Illustrated by data from fourteen developed countries, we compare point and interval forecasts among ten principal component methods, two random walk methods, and two univariate time-series methods. Based on averaged one-step-ahead and ten-step-ahead forecast errors, random walk with drift and Lee-Miller methods are the two most accurate methods for producing point forecasts. By combining their forecasts, point forecast accuracy is improved. As measured by averaged coverage probability deviance, the Hyndman-Ullah methods generally provide more accurate interval forecasts than the Lee-Carter methods. However, the Hyndman-Ullah methods produce wider half-widths of prediction interval than the Lee-Carter methods. Model averaging approach should be considered to produce more accurate point forecasts.

文章出处：Demographic Research, Vol. 27