内容提要：本文运用2000年人口普查数据和2005年人口抽样调查数据，将1999年高校扩招视为一次自然实验，运用双差分(DID)方法考查了高校扩招对中国农村地区个体高中阶段教育入学决策的影响。结果发现：高校扩招的确对中国农村地区的个体高中入学决策产生了积极的影响；在农村地区，高校扩招对个体高中入学决策的这种积极影响在不同群体内的作用机制不同，对男性、汉族、父/母亲受教育程度在高中及以上以及独生子女家庭的学生的作用更大。因此，对特定地区和人群的教育政策倾斜，将有助于提高人力资本投资的效率。

关键词：高校扩招 高中入学决策 双差分

The Impacts of Expansion of Higher Education on High School Enrollment in Rural China

Abstract： Taking advantage of the micro level data from the Fifth Census in 2000 and the 1 percent Population Sampling Survey in 2005, this paper examines the impacts of expansion of higher education on the enrollment of high school in rural China by using the methodology of difference in difference. The empirical results indicate that the expansion of higher education did have positive influence on high school enrollment in rural China. However, there is heterogeneity in the impacts across different groups of people in terms of individual characteristics. Higher magnitude is found for male students from one child family with Han nationality and better education for parents. Therefore, more specifically targeting those regions and groups would improve the efficiency of education investment.

Keywords： expansion of higher education,high school enrollment,difference in difference

JEL Classification： I25, J24, J48

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